By David I. Gustafson, Adjunct Research Faculty at Washington State University

Figure 1. Example of “spaghetti model” predictions of potential hurricane paths. Source: Samantha Kendall, “Hurricane Ian Expected to Impact Florida This Week,” posted on September 22, 2022, AllEars.net (https://allears.net/2022/09/22/tropical-weather-system-could-strengthen-to-hurricane-and-threaten-florida-next-week/).
“It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” So goes an apparently ancient Danish aphorism also mistakenly credited to a wide range of humorists, from Yogi Berra to Mark Twain – and even to a Nobel Laureate, Niels Bohr. Whatever its origins, it is undeniably true. I will discuss an approach for hedging our bets against an uncertain future. I will start with an example where this is already being done, and then we can tackle soil carbon. Continue reading